Wednesday, April 15, 2015

The global consequences of American geopolitical and military weakness.

The US truly became an empire, even if it was unaware of it or unwilling to be one, at the moment of victory in WWII and not a single day before. The world was truly aflame during that war. We haven't seen an inferno even close to that since then, despite the potential for the Cold War to become the most devastating war in history. The Cold War stayed cold for a reason. That reason was NOT Russian power. It was American power. The world will not burn again until the lack of the American military and geopolitical power abroad provides a vacuum.

Our president and his administration is in the process of intentionally weakening the US influence around the world and the results of doing so are apparently going to be immediate. One thing is certain, Obama is the first president who intentionally and knowingly attempted to make the US weaker around the world. He is the first who actively sought to bring America DOWN to the level of the rest of the world. Russia and China have aggressively seized on this opportunity to expand their sphere of influence (SOI) during this time.

Once Russia and China make gains (economically, militarily, politically) in their SOI, it will be nearly impossible for those gains to be scaled back significantly without a collapse (think of the Soviet Union collapse). There will be many who look at the entire picture of this and say "Who cares? We have our own problems to deal with!" These are the people who do not have an understanding of how the world today is interconnected. These are the people who have no understanding of the end goals of Russia and China.

While we see the aggressive actions of our largest nation-bound enemies, we also see the rise of "terrorist armies" like ISIS. This hybridized (sometimes guerrilla, sometimes conventional) threat is fairly new in our lifetime when you look at some of the characteristics of ISIS. I say "fairly" new because it's basically AQ on steroids. Steroids and crack. Not much has been done to weaken this army as it stands in the Levant. There is no real coalition. There is no real stomach for commitment. There is little sense of urgency. Our leaders are afraid to do what is necessary. More weakness on the global stage when there is a great opportunity for strength.

We also see our smaller nation-bound enemies getting bolder and bolder. Iran has spread it's tentacles throughout the entire world. Iran is actively providing training, weapons, equipment and funding to operatives on every inhabited continent and they're doing it on a massive scale. North Korea (nK) is another example of a "small enemy" doing big things, but I'm not going to elaborate because I signed a Nondisclosure Agreement upon leaving the Army. Take my word or don't, but just because they are not a conventional threat to us (or really anyone beyond a roughly 45 day blitz against South Korea) does not mean they are not a threat at all. In my professional opinion, a large majority of nK's ability to pose a threat to us and our allies was gained in just the last 4-5 years.

Speaking of our allies, they are seeing our efforts to weaken ourselves and are losing confidence in us at light speed. Britain, Germany and France have begun jockeying for European leadership now that it actually matters. These allies are now preparing for a world in which they must go it alone if need be. I'd say these nations should have been ready for the day when the US wasn't able or willing to ride in to save them, but do not allow yourself to be fooled into thinking we don't benefit from having a group of allies at our back. They are not geopolitically weak and we benefit greatly from our allies knowing that we are strong. They see our weakness and it has already begun to have political and economic consequences.

I can continue on and on, discussing the implications of American weakness for our smaller allies, the deterioration of our friendship with Israel, the sham that is the Iranian negotiations, the Saudis and other Arab states launching military strikes against Islamic extremists without notifying us (they aren't obligated to do so, but the fact that they used to and now no longer do so is quite telling), South American countries officially shipping their poor, unhealthy and criminals to Mexico and Mexico actively facilitating their infiltration over the border, Russian and Chinese banks buying massive amounts of precious metals while they actively work to bring down the American economy, etc. These things are not guaranteed to be prevented by American geopolitical and military strength projected abroad, but when that strength is missing, those things are guaranteed to occur and we are guaranteed to pay a price for it at home.